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Snow Next Week - Tracking Chances

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Are you ready for Winter?

A strong cold front arrives Sunday with gusty winds and rain showers, but more importantly, much colder air will be moving in behind the front by midday.  Models are showing modified Arctic arriving overnight Sunday with highs in the 20s-30s and lows in the teens and 20s early next week.  Brrr!!!!  (Temperature maps below are based of the GFS Model)

Strong cold front Sunday

Highs Monday

Tuesday Morning Lows

Highs Tuesday

BOTS (Bring on the Snow)

With the cold air in place all we need is some moisture to give us some snow and it looks like a fast moving system dropping south from Alaska will provide us with some.  The Ketchikan Klipper (as I like to call it) could give us 1-2", locally 3 inches Monday-early Tuesday morning.  The track of the low is critical for us to see any snow and until today the models have been inconsistent. 

For us to see snow I like to see the 1000-500mb thickness at 522 and the line is well to our south.

But Wait...

It should be noted that the models have been flip-flopping on this system for the last several days.  Yesterday, they were tracking Monday's low south along the Oregon coast and that would have been a "No-Snow Maker".  


Next Wednesday-Thursday could be a real MESS…   Models are starting to show another very strong winter system for the middle of next week.  Here's the potential set up…  A deep layer of cold (see above) will interact with a strong, moist and warmer Pacific front.  This will result in warm, moist overrunning of the cold air - This type of set-up generally leads to a wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain and finally rain (sometimes all at the same time).  It is to early to put accumulation totals out for this storm, but if it plays out like the models are showing it could have a major impact on travel across the region.

Starting as all snow Wednesday.

Freezing rain and rain spreading north Wednesday night.

Still a wintry mess Thursday morning.

Changing to all rain Thursday night. 

Finally Thoughts

Confident continues to grow Monday's "Ketchikan Klipper"...  I think we have a good chance at see a little snow.  The storm system for the middle of next week remains a challenge and there is a higher degree of uncertainty with that part of the forecast.  We will need to watch it very closely!