Patchy Fog, otherwise mostly sunny and nice today. Morning temperatures in the 20s, low-mid 40s by noon and afternoon highs in the mid 40s-near 50.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern through Saturday with varying amounts of late night and morning fog. Highs will be in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
The ridge will flatten out a bit Saturday as a weak upper level disturbance moves through the region with some clouds and a chance for a few mountain showers with snow levels around 5,000ft. Southerly winds develop Sunday ahead of an approaching front with highs climbing into the mid 50s. This front will give us a slight chance for a few showers late in the day or night. Snow levels will also drop to around 2,500 ft overnight and the mountain passes could see some accumulation. Cooler and breezy Monday with a slight chance for a stray shower, highs in the 40s.
The forecast remains very challenging for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models continue to show a wide range of possibilities, from a major snow maker to nothing. Welcome to my world… Just add another gray hair to my head! Here's what you need to know…
Possible Snow Maker Or Not (Tuesday Night-Wednesday)
1. The storm is forming over Siberia around more than 3,000 miles away
2. The track is still unknown
3. This storm is still 5-6 days out and a lot can change it that amount of time
4. Weather models do poorly on storms this far out. The resolution and forecast will improve the greatly by Sunday/Monday
Here's my take… Both the Euro (European) and GFS (American) models bring the system onshore near the CA/OR border around 9 PM Tuesday night and that's where they stop agreeing! The European model tracks the storm to the northeast through Oregon, Idaho and into western Montana. This would keep the region in cold wrap around snow for most of time (maybe a mix in the Tri-Cities) with the potential for some significant snowfall. The problem with this solution - the track is completely different then it was yesterday. The Euro is really having some consistency issues.
The American model takes the storm south into California. This track would make it more of a southern Oregon and northern California snow event. However, the mountains (Cascades and Blues) could see some snow and a little rain/mix in the lowlands before the system moved to far south. I'm currently leaning towards the southern solution because the GFS has shown better consistency over the past few days. For now I'm forecasting cold showers to develop late Tuesday evening/night and possibly mixing with some wet snow by early Wednesday morning.
All the models agree that much colder air will arrive the middle of next week with highs falling into the 30s and lows in the teens and low 20s. Thanksgiving this year looks COLD!